Super Tuesday

Just some thoughts, News Comments Off

It’s Super Tuesday, the seminal day during the presidential primary season where a significant number of delegates are up for grabs.

The results of today will shape the remainder of the primary season, leading up to each party’s convention over the summer. Look for political advertisements to sharpen in quantity and intensity, and watch for each candidate to make subtle shifts in their policies in order to position themselves as more electable.

My predictions on the Democratic side: Clinton will win NY, but will lose her home state of IL to Obama, along with CA, most of the midwest and all southern states. For the Republicans, McCain will make strong showings in all Super Tuesday states, and since the GOP primaries are winner-take-all (unlike the Dem’s proporational delegates), Romney won’t last much beyond tomorrow. Huckabee will win Arkansas, and will also end up bowing up by the end of the week.

The real fun will be at the Democratic convention. John Edwards suspended his campaign, he didn’t end it. After the first round of delegate voting, if no plurality emerges delegates are free to vote for whomever they want (at least that’s my understanding).